28 September 2023

An argument for ambition

Back in the liberal interregnum, before powerful states - the “great irresponsibles” as Hedley Bull once termed them - had saddled the vision of collective global responsibility with the politics of the UN Security Council, proposals circulated for the formation of an international air force.[1] 

Between 1908 and 1940 public intellectuals like Leonard Woolf, David Davies, Philip Noel-Baker, Norman Angell and Bertrand Russell argued that air power was both too dangerous and too important to the future of humanity to be left in the hands of bellicose states. The easier it became for states to resort to force, the more tenuous the rules prohibiting the use of force would become. To head off this possibility they called for ceding monopoly control of the technology to an international consortium of public and private trustees of global order. Staffed by people inherently committed to global goods and firewalled from states’ subjective interests, this Authority would be freed to objectively enforce rules promoting international peace and prosperity. 

E. H. Carr, among others, tagged the liberal international vision as hopelessly grandiose and - because of this - infinitely dangerous. By mobilising around a fantasy world in which supranational institutions were capable of exercising the hard power needed to govern, ignoring the world “as it was” where the capability of any global organisations would always be subject to the whims of spoiler states, leaders might be convinced to adopt policies which would leave them catastrophically exposed to the regressive moves of less romantic players on the board. Actually believing that there was an alternative to statist power politics was a foundational mistake. 

But Carr’s caricature of liberal proposals as a series of utopian fever dreams conveniently ignored the motivating claim: that radical policy challenges required radical policy solutions. Proposals for an international air force were conceived as a pragmatic and necessarily ambitious response to a previously unimagined threat to social order. The argument was, in effect, that policymakers were faced with a stark choice. Either watch as a radical new technology wrought a predictably chaotic impact on national and international society. Or get ahead of the curve and empower an authority with the real capability to enforce international law and, in so doing, ensure that the inevitable transformation of society followed humanity’s best interests. In the face of transformative change, maintaining the status quo, as Carr and other realists suggested, wasn’t the ethical or strategically sensible policy. Quite the opposite.  

Of course the critics were right to stress that any policy proposals needed to be alive to the political dynamics which, given the structural incentives shaping international politics, undermined the workability of world government. But with the benefit of hindsight we know that Angell, Davies and co. were equally right to flag the radical transformation to be wrought by air power, with all the attendant changes to international law, global order and national security strategies.

The drums are beginning to beat for new UN agency for Artificial Intelligence. We’ll know more when the High-Level Panel on AI gives is analysis (mandated for 31 December 2023) on “options for the international governance of artificial intelligence”, but the smart money is that something will emerge, especially as AI leaders push policymakers to come up with better governance mechanisms. Per OpenAI: “Any effort above a certain capability (or resources like compute) threshold will need to be subject to an international authority that can inspect systems, require audits, test for compliance with safety standards, place restrictions on degrees of deployment and levels of security”.

There are likely to be earnest debates about the exact form a new agency or “international authority” takes, in particular the enforcement capability with which it is endowed. Without wanting to preempt the outcome of these conversations it seems unlikely that we’ll get an agency able to actually govern AI in any meaningful sense. Sam Altman and co are likely to be disappointed.

This suspicion isn’t (only) rooted in scepticism about the existing UN system to govern but deeper, in the capacity to of global policymakers to design a system with the necessary rules and “constitutional“ powers necessary to govern effectively.

In this context it’s worth looking at the arguments and failed ambitions of an earlier generation of liberal internationalists. They found that ambition was a necessary and prudential policy strategy in the face of the uncertain transformation unleashed by “futuretech”.

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Technology changes the future threats that rules, policies and laws must guard against. But this isn’t just a brute force attack against existing rules or forms of governance. What worried the liberal internationalists about air power, and what should worry us today about AI and other “futuretech” is that the rules which exist to contain, to limit, the possibility of a dystopian future, become increasingly hollowed out and unworkable. As Captain Philip S. Mumford put it in 1936, air power, ‘one of the greatest scientific achievements of man is being prostituted to international standards of the sixteenth century - standards totally inapplicable to twentieth century conditions.’

We’re confronting this same worry almost 90 years later. What futures are created when a radical social transformation is governed piecemeal rather than by grand design? Can the UN - and the mooted agency for AI - really do the work need to govern effectively without tackling the problems with international enforcement? Or is this the time to begin re-imagining what global governance should look in the context of the range of transnational and potentially existential threats created by futuretech?


[1] Brett Holman (2016) The Next War in the Air: Britain's Fear of the Bomber, 1908–1941; Waqar H. Zaidi, “‘Aviation Will Either Destroy or Save Our Civilization’: Proposals for the International Control of Aviation, 1920—45”, Journal of Contemporary History 26 (1) 2011; Michael Pugh, ‘Policing the World: Lord Davies and the Quest for Order in the 1930s’, International Relations 16 (2002) p. 97-115; on the history of liberal internationalism see generally Michael C. Pugh, Liberal Internationalism: The Interwar Movement for Peace in Britain, 2012 


KEYWORDS

Emerging Tech | Radical Transformation | AI Governance | Global Policy | United Nations | International Agency for AI

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